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Small Sample Versus Census Surveys

An interesting article from Seth Godin that discusses the differences in perceptions of very small samples compared with census surveys:

Thanks to the internet, surveys are a lot cheaper than they used to be. And the prevalence of roll-your-own amateur surveys means that we all have a lot to learn.

A survey can teach your customers or it can help you learn from them.

And it might be a real survey, or it could be a census.

The traditional understanding of a survey is that the goal is to LEARN from your population and that you will ask a scientific sampling, not everyone.

You can TEACH people with a survey, though, simply by asking them questions that help them notice things they never noticed before. “Do your prefer option A or option B,” might just be a way of getting people to notice that you even have an option B.

The very act of asking a question may change the experience for the customer. One small firm I know shows prospects a book of testimonials. Then they say, “I hope that when we’ve completed our job for you, you’ll be willing to write one too.” That seed increases the likelihood that people are going to be looking for something good to say, which increases the likelihood that they’ll enjoy the event.

Of course, this can spiral out of control pretty quickly. Push polling, in which faux pollsters call people up and ask them questions with patently false assumptions about competing candidates, for example, is just wrong.

But don’t forget the hybrid solution, which I call a Trident survey. “4 out of 5 dentists surveyed recommend sugarless gum…” Hardly scientific, but publishing the results made dentists feel better about recommending the gum and made people with teeth happier about chewing it.

Which leads to the question of how many people you’re going to ask. Professional surveyors almost never ask everyone. They carefully select a representative sample (not so easy) and invest in each interview, thus scaling the results for the whole population. That’s how Nielsen works.

There are plenty of inexpensive ways to ask EVERYONE your question, though. That turns your survey into a census. A census only works, of course, when the response rate is close to 100%, because uneven response rates are going to skew your results.

Analytics is a form of census survey. You can track how everyone who visits your website behaves. Focus groups, on the other hand, are a poor use of just about anyone’s resources, because they are inherently not surveys at all. Without a skilled moderator, all you get is useless (but extremely vivid) data.

So, I guess I’d summarize the survey question by identifying four kinds of surveys that are worth doing:

Census surveys designed to teach your market, not you. The act of asking the question is a marketing tactic.
Public non-scientific surveys (or census surveys) in which publishing your results to the group helps change the group’s behavior.
Professional surveys designed to extract really meaningful data from a small group.
Census-based analytics in which you are extracting data about behavior from the entire group.

One last warning: round off. 98.2% is a bogus result. “Most” is a lot more accurate. The ultimate purpose of most traditional surveys is to make decisions. Alas, your audience is often the very worst group to help you make a decision. When you let a survey be presented as accurate, it becomes the silent decision maker in the room and leads, often, to mediocre products for the middle of the market.

For more information on sampling click here.

from b2bsee * The Market Research Blog

The Emergence of Mobile Market Research Opportunities

With the growth of the Internet, market research industry business models are evolving. Using mobile telephony to conduct market research will expand the current potential for research and provide a platform for future directions in the industry.

Why Mobile Research?

In today’s market research environment, where increasing respondent cooperation has been a challenge, mobile research may be part of the solution. A growth in mobile phone penetration, coupled with the latest developments in mobile phone technology, is presenting new solutions and opportunities to boost participation levels.

Within the past five years, there has been a significant increase in both the number of mobile phone users and households that have mobile phones and no landlines. In the United States alone, the percentage of adults in mobile-phone-only homes has increased from 7.7% to 11.8% between 2005 and 2006, according to the National Health Interview Survey. The rise is driven primarily by young people, with more than a quarter of those aged 18-29 moving towards mobile phone use only. The increase of mobile-phone-only homes poses a particular concern for researchers who rely largely on landline numbers to conduct phone surveys.

Outside the U.S., the mobile phone infrastructure has expanded throughout the world, creating a growing number of mobile phone users in Europe, Asia-Pacific and the developing countries. Steady expansion will continue to increase the number of mobile phone users.

According to a report by Informa Telecoms and Media (2006), 30 countries exceeded 100% mobile phone penetration, with countries such as the U.K., Sweden and Italy at more than 110%. This indicates that a portion of the population in these countries currently has two or more mobile phone subscriptions. According to the same report, mobile phone penetration in the U.S. is nearing 70% while the Asian leaders, Hong Kong and Taiwan, have reached a significantly higher rate of 125%. The 2004 Lemelson-MIT Invention Index study reported nearly one-third of adults in the U.S. claimed “the mobile phone is the number one invention they cannot live without,” beating out staples such as alarm clocks, televisions and microwaves.

In addition to increasing rates of global penetration, mobile telephony is characterized by rapid technological developments. A typical mobile phone is not only used as a telephone, but also may be used as a computer, media player, camera and much more. According to the latest research of the Online Publishers Association, 76% of all consumers in the U.S. and Western Europe have Internet access on their mobile device and about one-third use it. Among those with mobile access to the Internet, the U.K. leads in usage (54%), followed by the U.S. (41%).

As we examine the heightened global penetration and technological developments, IT research company Gartner predicts that 70% of global voice connections will be wireless by 2009. Gartner further predicts that about one-third of the people in Europe and the U.S. will choose wireless and broadband telephones over fixed phone lines by 2009.

There are several ways to utilize mobile devices to conduct market research. One approach is recruiting respondents for online surveys through invitation or screening, utilizing a short mobile survey or providing the option to take the survey via mobile phone.

Below are some mobile research opportunities:

• Alternative way to connect with hard-to-reach demographic groups in market research
• Increased respondent cooperation from all demographic groups
• Immediate feedback on your research questions concerning marketing campaigns, ad testing, etc.
• Cost savings from faster replies to surveys, shorter project completion time
• Mobile recruiting tool used to direct respondents to online surveys
• Another way to reach people on the go

Like all research and data collection methods, mobile research may face some constraints. Here are some things to consider when conducting mobile surveys:

• Short questionnaires
• Limited type and length of questions
• Higher incentives needed to offset the respondents’ financial burden of receiving and completing mobile surveys
• Profile of respondents able to take part in mobile surveys

from b2bsee * The Market Research Blog

Market Research - The Key To Business Success - Part 2 of 2

Product development

Having established customers’ needs, and how this affects their buying behaviour, this vital intelligence can be used to influence both product design and the marketing message.

Statistical analysis can then be used to group consumers according to these needs, allowing the supplier to offer a customised range of products or services that will meet their differing requirements.

A significant amount of market research (over a quarter) is spent on developing new products. Primary research may test attitudes to existing products to establish in what way they are lacking, and then test improved and modified products to see if they better meet consumers’ needs.

This research can be carried out in a variety of ways including focus groups (repeated sampling of a group representing your potential customers), random high street tests and home tests.

Pricing

One of the best methods of establishing what people will pay for a product is a test market in which the product is offered in a real competitive environment, with controls to see the different effects of prices.

Test markets are expensive to set up and control, so primary research is used to obtain views on the optimum prices for products and services.
This type of research can range from very simple questions that ask people’s likelihood to buy at a certain price, through to more sophisticated approaches using trade-off (conjoint) analysis.

Conjoint analysis asks respondents to rank a number of contrasting combinations of attributes that represent the concepts for the new product. The ranking enables researchers to calculate values for each attribute, indicating a measure of the desirability of the different combinations.

Promotions and branding

A significant amount of primary research is devoted to finding out promotions that can be made to work harder. Qualitative research is used to explore the motivations that drive buying decisions, and these become the messages in the promotions.

Qualitative research is also used to test advertising concepts and draft campaigns to establish which will be most effective or how they can be tuned to greater effect.
You can also measure brand awareness and find out how that awareness has been built up (a difficult task). Media research checks on the newspapers and journals that people read and the programmes they watch and listen to.

People are often reluctant to admit to the influence of promotions or the power of brands in influencing their purchasing decisions. Primary research is used to find out how brands are perceived and what are considered to be their values.

Setting objectives

In conclusion, practical market research requires a good brief - an analysis of the problem and setting out the objectives that need to be achieved.

This brief is arguably the most important part of the research process, because if it is well thought out, the research approach will be easily and correctly proposed. The following questions should be front of mind when preparing the brief:

• Why carry out this particular research and what action will be taken when the research is completed?
This is the most important part of the brief, as it will allow the researcher to work out how the information will be used.

• What has caused this problem or led to this opportunity? Here it is helpful to describe the history that has led up to the research.
A description of the product or service is important, and it would also be useful to talk about the way the market is changing.

• What is known about the subject already?
There is no point reinventing the wheel. What desk research exists on the subject? What is known about the market within the organisation but has not been shared around or that has been dismissed?

• Who are the target groups for the research?
The targets for interviews need to be lined up carefully. If they are householders, should they be people who have bought a product or who are thinking of buying a product? In a business-to-business market, should the targets be buyers or people who specify the product or service?

• What specific information is needed from the research?
The person wanting the market research almost certainly has some key information gaps that need filling – e.g. market size, trends, buying behaviour, customer needs and segmentation.

• What is the proposed budget?
This is essential, or the researchers could design a comprehensive plan, only to be sent back to the drawing board because there are limited funds.

• Are there any initial ideas for the research method?
A client who is sponsoring a research project may well have a method in mind. Are any research methods favoured?

• Are there any reporting requirements?
Increasingly, the default method of reporting in the market research industry is a set of presentation slides which doubles as the presentation and the report. Researchers have no problem writing a narrative report, but they would typically have to charge an extra three or four days of their time for its preparation - incurring a cost of a few thousand pounds.

• When are the findings required?
Most research has a demanding timetable. The dates by which research is required should be specified so that even if they are really difficult, the researcher can try to be accommodating, perhaps with an interim debrief or regular reporting sessions.

In summary, then, don’t plan anything in business without doing your homework first - and structure that homework carefully and professionally.

from b2bsee * The Market Research Blog

Market Research - The Key To Business Success - Part 1 of 2

If you’re in business, or setting up a business, you need to understand your market. If you don’t understand your customers and your competitors, you are doomed to fail, says Paul Hague.

Goodness knows when market research was ‘invented’. It would be reasonable to suppose that sensible people in business have always researched their markets. They will have asked their customers what they want and if they are satisfied with the products and services they supply. They will have done a crude assessment of the potential for their products. They will have judged the best price to charge by carefully watching the competition. Customers have always been the most important part of a business.

Today, if you do not put the customer at the centre of your business, you will, over time, have no business. In other words, market research or market intelligence is essential.

Structured research

However, market research is a bit more than the informal assimilation and interpretation of intelligence that is a natural consequence of keeping eyes and ears open.

Market research is structured and purposeful. It is the systematic and objective collection and interpretation of data to help reduce risk in marketing decisions.

A market researcher’s stock in trade is data, but good market research should not stop with data. Data is the collection of facts and opinions that are accumulated in the survey process. This needs converting to information that tells us something.

More than this, it needs to become intelligence so it helps us make smart moves. Market researchers collect statistics and opinions; then they work out what this data means, and draw conclusions which lead to improved business decisions.

All businesses need information to guide decision-making. Managers desperately trying to understand increasingly complex and global markets need more useable information than ever before. Because of this, the research sector plays a valuable role in the commercial world today.

Market research in the UK is split almost equally between that carried out with the general public and that with a non-public audience, such as businesses or the medical profession. There are six important categories of research:
• Understanding consumer perceptions and behaviour;
• Measuring consumer perceptions and behaviour;
• Product development;
• Pricing;
• Promotions and branding;
• Understanding market size and brand shares.

Market size data is often obtained from secondary data and desk research. However, primary research can be used to make estimates of market size if there are no published figures. The market size would be calculated by collecting data from consumers on their use of products and services and the volume and frequency of their purchases. By using this data, together with population statistics, estimates can be made of the overall market size.

For example, if research established that 79% of people who saw a new light bulb were interested in the new product, it would represent 36 million people with an interest in the bulb out of the 45 million adults in the UK.

The researcher could now play ‘what if games with these figures. For example, what would that mean in revenue to the company if just 10% of this number bought at least one of the new light bulbs per year at a retail price of £.1?

Consumer perceptions

Primary research is carried out to establish consumers’ use of and attitudes to products and brands. Typically researchers test the awareness of brands (unprompted and then prompted) and then determine which products are sometimes used and which are used most of the time. This shows consumers’ loyalty to brands and their switching behaviour.
Consumers build up prejudices and beliefs about products and services that affect their buying habits. Researchers test these opinions and attitudes to show what attributes are considered to be important in choosing a brand and how brands compare on those factors. Customer satisfaction surveys are based on this type of questioning.

Part 2 published tomorrow

from b2bsee * The Market Research Blog

10 Top Tips For Market Research Fieldwork In Asia

From all the international projects we have carried out at B2B International, we know that knowledge of cultural and regional differences; especially in Asia, are crucial in any market research project running smoothly from beginning to end. If you are considering carrying out research in Asia then the following ten tips will hopefully help you along the way.

Interviewing During The Day:
Apart from in China, you will find that most respondents from countries in Asia are unable to commit to interviews during the day, due to work commitments

Telephone Interviews:
Business telephone interviews are usually kept to within 20 minutes to prevent respondent fatigue and to avoid a high drop-out rate.

Size Of Living Area:
In Japan, living areas tend to be much smaller than those in western countries such as the US. As a result, client observations teams should be kept to three (including the translator).

Online Surveys:
Overall, response to online surveys in Asia tends to yield much lower response rates that in the US and Europe (with the exception of Japan and Korea). Most respondents, especially business respondents, tend to be less responsive to online surveys.

Internet Infrastructure:
The internet structure in certain countries such as Indonesia, Vietnam and the Philippines tends to be weaker than other Asian countries such as Japan, Korea, and Singapore.

Cost of Living:
Doing research in Japan, Korea, Singapore and Hong Kong tends to be more expensive than other Asian countries like Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines due to the higher cost of living.

Travelling:
Travelling in Japan can be extortionate – a taxi ride from the Airport into the centre can cost as much as £200! Therefore, the subway is still the most convenient and cost effective way of travelling within the city.

Focus Groups:
Due to the long working hours and travelling time in countries such as Japan and Korea – it is typical for only one focus group to be held in an evening.

Courtesy Biasness:
Being such polite people in general, the respondents in Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines tend to exhibit courtesy biasness over their other Asian counterparts, by usually giving higher scores when they are asked ratings questions.

Weather Conditions and Traffic:
These tend to affect turn out rate for focus groups and face-to-face interviews in Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines.

If you are interested in carrying out market research in China or market research in Asia then contact B2B China on +86 (0)10 6515 6642 or visit our website at http://www.b2binternational.com.cn/English/index.html

from b2bsee * The Market Research Blog

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